Ok as always lets start this thing by going back to the last fight card. Once again we were close to a perfect night but Cung Le let us down. On the brightside if you were playing each fight individually you should have had a healthy enough profit come the end of the night.
It's title fight time this weekend in Toronto so lets take a look at what is one hell of a card.
The card is as follows (please note the order of the fights may be altered).
Mitch Clarke vs. 
John Cholish
Welterweight bout: Rich Attonito vs. Jake Hecht
Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Nik Lentz
Yves Jabouin vs. Walel Watson
Lightweight bout: John Makdessi vs. Dennis Hallman
Middleweight bout: Jared Hamman vs. 
Constantinos Philippou
Light Heavyweight bout:
Krzysztof Soszynski vs. 
Igor Pokrajac
Mark Hominick vs. 
Chan Sung Jung
Welterweight bout: Claude Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole
Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. 
Antônio Rogério Nogueira
Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira
Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones (c) vs. Lyoto Machida
As ever we'll start with the main event of the evening and work our way through the card.
Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones (c) vs. Lyoto Machida
This was meant to be the grudge match of the year in Jonny Bones Jones taking on Suga Rashad Evans but a knee injury has robbed us of that and left us with an intriguing match up between two of the most elusive guys at 205lbs.
It seems crazy that it's only 2 and a half years ago that people were talking about the start of the Machida era after Lyoto took Rashad Evans apart on the feet to claim the Light Heavyweight title. Since then Machida hit the road block of two stunning performances from Shogun Rua to see his title taken off him in the most vicious of circumstances. After 16 fights undefeated Machida had finally received his first official loss via a KO. I say official as a lot of people including myself scored the first fight to Rua who at the time was a 5-1 underdog. Machida then suffered a razor thin decision loss the Quentin Rampage Jackson in a fight that could have gone either way on the score card. It was an advertisement for why 10-10 rounds should be allowed.
During Machida's unbeaten run; one thing was singled out as his biggest weapon. His elusiveness. He was the John Dillinger of MMA in a way. Always on the run but always effective when on the job. He just seemed to rarely if ever get hit and was able to get in and out utilizing his excellent foot work from years of karate. It was this that allowed Machida to land strikes from the outside and frustrate opponents into fighting his type of fight. His accuracy and speed make him a dangerous opponent for just about anyone. He's also got some excellent trips and enough stamina to keep the pace up for 5 rounds. His biggest issue appears to be when someone can match his pace or clinch with him. Going into this fight that's not a good thing.
Here's why. Mr. Jones is not only the youngest UFC Light Heavyweight champion in history. He is also one of the best prospects on the planet. The kid is amazing. He always seems to add new facets to his game and with his 83 inch reach he has enough in his arsenal to keep fighters outside of range for them to land any damage. Other than the reach advantage Jones has some of the best wrestling in the division. He's rag dolled Matt Hammill, Stephan Bonner, Ryan Bader and Vladimir Matsuchenko not to mention put a beating on Mauricio Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson.
Add to this that he has one of the most unpredictable striking games in the division and a submission repetoire that is still grown and that's most recently seen him end Rampage's record of having never been finished in the UFC and you will be building a picture of why I think Machida is in for a difficult night.
Recommendation: Jonny Bones Jones to retain his belt. I'm thinking this will be a TKO via ground and pound. Bones tends to take a round to get his timing so I'd say rounds 2 or 3 are the most likely. If Machida is to win this he needs to to do it early.. Otherwise this is Bones fight in my opinion.
Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira
There's a lot of bad blood in this particular rematch stemming from Mir's thoughts on Nogueira's announcement regarding his staph infection prior to the original fight back at UFC 92.
Let's get this straight. Both fighters are legends of the game in my opinion. Mir and Nogueira stretch back to a previous era of heavyweights when some where overweight journey men and some were steroid freaks out for a pay day in Japan. Both have held titles in the UFC and have notable victories over recent previous champions in the UFC heavyweight division (Mir over Brock Lesnar and Nogueira most recently over Randy Couture).
Both are noted as having excellent ground games both from their back and on top. Nogueira is known for utilizing his ground game primarily after taking damage as he did in Pride. Mir was one of the first notable American Heavyweights to utilize a BJJ game to his advantage. Most notably when he snapped Tim Sylvia's arm or when he knee barred Brock Lesnar.
Nogueira has a guillotine choke vicotry over Sylvia and in that fight claimed the interim UFC Heavyweight title which he then in turn lost to Mir back at UFC 92.
Both have decent stand up and I think it's here that the fight is most likely to be decided. Obviously in the first fight Mir completely owned Big Nog in the stand up area but this is a bigger question going into this fight. Will there be a difference in this aspect or will it be more of the same. I tend to think it will be a more even fight and with the prices available I fancy an upset. Remember Nog trains with 2 excellent boxers in his twin brother and Junior Dos Santos. His biggest issue in my opinion is his lack of head movement.
Having watched the weigh ins and having seen Mir tip the scales at 260lbs I have to believe that this may play into Nogueira's hands as Mir will be a slower target with the extra bulk in my opinion.
Recommendation: Big Nog for the upset. His most recent performance against Schaub was a lot more impressive to me than what Mir has done against Roy Nelson and Cro Cop in his most recent fights.
Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung
Recommendation: Hominick
Lightweight bout: John Makdessi vs. Dennis Hallman
Recommendation: Makdessi
Light Heavyweight bout: Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Igor Pokrajac
Recommendation: Soszynski
Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Nik Lentz
Recommendation: Bocek
Lightweight bout: Mitch Clarke vs. John Cholish
Recommendation: Cholish
I've had to go to http://www.paddypower.com/bet/ufc-mma for odds this time as Bet365 is not giving odds on everything. The selections above will get you 21/1 at this time. If you take Big Nog out it's 7/1.
As ever happy punting folks.
It's title fight time this weekend in Toronto so lets take a look at what is one hell of a card.
Preliminary card (Facebook)
Lightweight bout: Mitch Clarke vs. John Cholish Welterweight bout:
Rich Attonito vs. Jake HechtLightweight bout:
Mark Bocek vs. Nik LentzPreliminary card (televised)
Bantamweight bout: Yves Jabouin vs. Walel WatsonLightweight bout:
John Makdessi vs. Dennis Hallman Middleweight bout:
Jared Hamman vs. Constantinos PhilippouLight Heavyweight bout:
Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Igor Pokrajac Main card
Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung JungWelterweight bout:
Claude Patrick vs. Brian EbersoleLight Heavyweight bout:
Tito Ortiz vs. Antônio Rogério NogueiraHeavyweight bout:
Frank Mir vs. Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraLight Heavyweight Championship bout:
Jon Jones (c) vs. Lyoto MachidaAs ever we'll start with the main event of the evening and work our way through the card.
Light Heavyweight Championship bout:
Jon Jones (c) vs. Lyoto MachidaThis was meant to be the grudge match of the year in Jonny Bones Jones taking on Suga Rashad Evans but a knee injury has robbed us of that and left us with an intriguing match up between two of the most elusive guys at 205lbs.
It seems crazy that it's only 2 and a half years ago that people were talking about the start of the Machida era after Lyoto took Rashad Evans apart on the feet to claim the Light Heavyweight title. Since then Machida hit the road block of two stunning performances from Shogun Rua to see his title taken off him in the most vicious of circumstances. After 16 fights undefeated Machida had finally received his first official loss via a KO. I say official as a lot of people including myself scored the first fight to Rua who at the time was a 5-1 underdog. Machida then suffered a razor thin decision loss the Quentin Rampage Jackson in a fight that could have gone either way on the score card. It was an advertisement for why 10-10 rounds should be allowed.
During Machida's unbeaten run; one thing was singled out as his biggest weapon. His elusiveness. He was the John Dillinger of MMA in a way. Always on the run but always effective when on the job. He just seemed to rarely if ever get hit and was able to get in and out utilizing his excellent foot work from years of karate. It was this that allowed Machida to land strikes from the outside and frustrate opponents into fighting his type of fight. His accuracy and speed make him a dangerous opponent for just about anyone. He's also got some excellent trips and enough stamina to keep the pace up for 5 rounds. His biggest issue appears to be when someone can match his pace or clinch with him. Going into this fight that's not a good thing.
Here's why. Mr. Jones is not only the youngest UFC Light Heavyweight champion in history. He is also one of the best prospects on the planet. The kid is amazing. He always seems to add new facets to his game and with his 83 inch reach he has enough in his arsenal to keep fighters outside of range for them to land any damage. Other than the reach advantage Jones has some of the best wrestling in the division. He's rag dolled Matt Hammill, Stephan Bonner, Ryan Bader and Vladimir Matsuchenko not to mention put a beating on Mauricio Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson.
Add to this that he has one of the most unpredictable striking games in the division and a submission repetoire that is still grown and that's most recently seen him end Rampage's record of having never been finished in the UFC and you will be building a picture of why I think Machida is in for a difficult night.
Recommendation: Jonny Bones Jones to retain his belt. I'm thinking this will be a TKO via ground and pound. Bones tends to take a round to get his timing so I'd say rounds 2 or 3 are the most likely. If Machida is to win this he needs to to do it early.. Otherwise this is Bones fight in my opinion.
Heavyweight bout:
Frank Mir vs. Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraThere's a lot of bad blood in this particular rematch stemming from Mir's thoughts on Nogueira's announcement regarding his staph infection prior to the original fight back at UFC 92.
Let's get this straight. Both fighters are legends of the game in my opinion. Mir and Nogueira stretch back to a previous era of heavyweights when some where overweight journey men and some were steroid freaks out for a pay day in Japan. Both have held titles in the UFC and have notable victories over recent previous champions in the UFC heavyweight division (Mir over Brock Lesnar and Nogueira most recently over Randy Couture).
Both are noted as having excellent ground games both from their back and on top. Nogueira is known for utilizing his ground game primarily after taking damage as he did in Pride. Mir was one of the first notable American Heavyweights to utilize a BJJ game to his advantage. Most notably when he snapped Tim Sylvia's arm or when he knee barred Brock Lesnar.
Nogueira has a guillotine choke vicotry over Sylvia and in that fight claimed the interim UFC Heavyweight title which he then in turn lost to Mir back at UFC 92.
Both have decent stand up and I think it's here that the fight is most likely to be decided. Obviously in the first fight Mir completely owned Big Nog in the stand up area but this is a bigger question going into this fight. Will there be a difference in this aspect or will it be more of the same. I tend to think it will be a more even fight and with the prices available I fancy an upset. Remember Nog trains with 2 excellent boxers in his twin brother and Junior Dos Santos. His biggest issue in my opinion is his lack of head movement.
Having watched the weigh ins and having seen Mir tip the scales at 260lbs I have to believe that this may play into Nogueira's hands as Mir will be a slower target with the extra bulk in my opinion.
Recommendation: Big Nog for the upset. His most recent performance against Schaub was a lot more impressive to me than what Mir has done against Roy Nelson and Cro Cop in his most recent fights.
Here's an extended preview of the fights for you to enjoy and it may help you make up your mind regarding whether or not to keep with my tips.
Other Picks:Featherweight bout:
Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung JungRecommendation: Hominick
Lightweight bout:
John Makdessi vs. Dennis Hallman Recommendation: Makdessi
Light Heavyweight bout:
Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Igor Pokrajac Recommendation: Soszynski
Lightweight bout:
Mark Bocek vs. Nik LentzRecommendation: Bocek
Lightweight bout:
Mitch Clarke vs. John CholishRecommendation: Cholish
I've had to go to http://www.paddypower.com/bet/ufc-mma for odds this time as Bet365 is not giving odds on everything. The selections above will get you 21/1 at this time. If you take Big Nog out it's 7/1.
As ever happy punting folks.
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