Thursday 17 November 2011

UFC 139 Betting

And here we go.

Last time out I was badly hit by the Kid Yamamoto loss on the accumalator end of things but the JDS knockout and the wins for Poirier, Peralta and Henderson more than made up for it. Again it was a close run thing for me but the strike rate remains around the north side of 80% so I hope those of you that are reading are making some money.

I've not much time to run through this so it's a much shorter blog than I would like to have gone with.

So lets get this thing started for UFC 139.



Here's the UFC's own extended preview for the event.




Here's the full fight card for UFC139. I'm only going to take 5 or 6 fights from the card as I believe there is a few too many fights that could go either way.

Main card

Light Heavyweight bout: Brazil Maurício Rua vs. United States Dan Henderson
Middleweight bout: Brazil Wanderlei Silva vs. United States Cung Le
Bantamweight bout: United States Urijah Faber vs. United States Brian Bowles
Welterweight bout: Denmark Martin Kampmann vs. United States Rick Story
Light Heavyweight bout: United States Stephan Bonnar vs. United States Kyle Kingsbury

    Preliminary card (televised)

    Light Heavyweight bout: United States Ryan Bader vs. United States Jason Brilz
    Middleweight bout: United States Tom Lawlor vs. United States Chris Weidman

      Preliminary card (Facebook)

      Bantamweight bout: United States Michael McDonald vs. Mexico Alex Soto
      Lightweight bout: Brazil Gleison Tibau vs. Brazil Rafael dos Anjos
      Bantamweight bout: United States Miguel Torres vs. United States Nick Pace
      Welterweight bout: United States Matt Brown vs. United States Seth Baczynski
      Lightweight bout: United States Shamar Bailey vs. United States Danny Castillo

        As ever we'll kick this off with the main event.

        Light Heavyweight bout: Brazil Maurício Rua vs. United States Dan Henderson

        4 and a half years seems such a short time but that's how long that has passed since these two would have been respectively the number 1 contender and champion of the Pride middleweight division (93kg). Unfortunately for Pride fans the company disbanded shortly after Henderson beat Wanderlei Silva and we would all have to wait until November 2011 for this match up to happen.




        Both men are legends in the sport. Shogun being responsible for giving Lyoto Machida his first professional loss in their second fight. He did this with a vicious TKO following the highly disputed original fight which the majority of people scored in Shogun's favour only for the judges scorecards to disagree. Since then there has been some major questions relating Shogun's condition and specifically the condition of his knees which have seen Rua have several surgeries over the years to varying degrees of success if his performances are to be the indicators of their success. This again is a question mark area as was seen in the fight with Jones where Shogun looked particularly out of shape and gassed badly. Of course Jones pressing and pushing the pace didn't help the matter but it's an area of concern as other than the original Machida fight Shogun's conditioning has been questionable. What's not in question is the mans talent. He is one of the best strikers on the planet and has a vicious array of knees and kicks that can leave any opponent in a daze. Not too mention the speed Shogun can go about his work when he is fully fit. This camp has largely been done in private so stories relating to Shogun's conditioning and injuries have been scarce. Simply put a fully fit Shogun is a dangerous proposition for just about anyone at 205lbs. The problem is it's a long time since we've seen this. After his KO victory against Forrest Griffin in his most recent bout we can not be sure if the real Shogun is ready to show up.

        And so we move on to his opponent Dan Henderson. Hendo probably has one of the most famous KO victories in history when he knocked out Michael Bisping at UFC100.


        Shortly after that fight Hendo moved to Strikeforce to challenge Jake Shields for that organisations middleweight title. He came up short against Shields and soon after returned to the 205lbs division. Since moving back up to 205lbs Hendo has been impressive and has enjoyed something of a career resurrection including most recently a victory against the Last Emperor Fedor at heavyweight. That victory for Henderson was massive and made him a much sought after free agent as his contract was up for negeotiation. Strikeforce having been purchased by Zuffa now lead to an interesting situation. Did they try keep Hendo in Strikeforce or bring him back to the UFC? Following the twitter discussion was half the fun. It lead to the now infamous "fatso's gotta go talk to baldy" tweet that showed the bad blood of their previous contract negeotiations that lead to Hendo jumping ship had been forgotten.


        Henderson finds himself coming off the back of 3 successive wins. One at heavyweight when he knocked out Fedor and two fights at lightheavyweight against Sobral and Cavalcante respectively. All 3 of these fights have ended with a Henderson KO or TKO. Just in case your wondering the last time Henderson lost a fight at 205 was against Rampage Jackson in 2007. Henderson is a grinder and an Olympic calibre wrestler. He's got massive KO power with his right hand and if he connects it will be goodnight for most opponents. Hendo also has a granite chin and has never lost by TKO or KO.


        This fight makes one hell of a match up even if it is a few years later than most of us would have liked. The big questions in the fight are whether Shogun's conditioning is up to scratch and whether Shogun may try and use his under-rated ground game. Personally speaking I see the clinch being crucial in this fight. Who ever is in control of it is likely to be victorious.

        For Shogun to win this he has to have a similar strategy to his fight with Machida that he gets in and out. Shogun's tendancy to drop his hands when landing leg kicks may put him in danger of getting clipped. Henderson's best bet short of catching Shogun with a right hook is grinding out the result by using his wrestling. Henderson has some excellent dirty boxing skills and much like Randy Couture can tire guys out by keeping them trapped in the clinch against the cage. He's some vicious ground and pound that Shogun will have to be careful of should he be taken down.


        Recommendation: Henderson might just edge this. Although both fighters are known for their KO abilities that this is going to possibly be a decision. The longer the fight goes the more it suits Henderson.

         


        Welterweight bout: Denmark Martin Kampmann vs. United States Rick Story

        I think this fight has one of the major plays of the evening. Both men are in the top ten of the welterweight division and a victory for either could push them back towards possible contention in the division. Both men are dangerous for different reasons. Story with his excellent chin and very solid wrestling. Kampmann for his excellent kickboxing game and very under-rated ground game.

        Story comes into the fight a slight favourite which personally speaking I think is a bit of a weird move by the bookies. If you look at their respective opponents to date Kampmann has fought a much higher calibre of fighter and with that has been on the wrong side of a couple of thread thin split decisions against top tier competition (Sanchez, Shields and Condit being the victors in those fights).

        This fight is going to be all about whether Kampmann can avoid the takedown and engage Story in the striking game without getting caught. If Story attempts to stand and brawl I believe he may be on the wrong end of a decision as Kampmann's kickboxing is on another level to Story's.

        Recommendation: The Hitman to upset the bookies and make us all some money. Those who bet on Fight of the Night may want to have a look at this as a potential bet.

        I usually try to breakdown other fights on the card but I'm a bit stretched for time. Here's who I'm picking for the other fights anyway if you're interested.

        Other Fights:

        Middleweight bout: Brazil Wanderlei Silva vs. United States Cung Le
        Recommendation: Cung Le
        Bantamweight bout: United States Urijah Faber vs. United States Brian Bowles
        Recommendation: Urijah Faber
        Bantamweight bout: United States Miguel Torres vs. United States Nick Pace
        Recommendation: Torres
        Middleweight bout: United States Tom Lawlor vs. United States Chris Weidman
        Recommendation: Chris Weidman
        If it was on entrances alone Lawlor would never lose. He is one of my favourite fighters but Weidman is going to be a top 185'er so apologies to the legend that is Tom. If you're not familiar with Tom have a look at this...









        Yeah any excuse to put those two clips into a blog is fine by me.

        My bookie of choice currently is Bet365 via http://www.bet365.com/home
        As of the time of writing the 6 fights in an accumalator is worth 16.84/1.

        As ever folks thank you for reading and happy punting.

        Goodbye from the fatman that is myself for now. This is my next haircut by the way.





        No comments:

        Post a Comment