UFC 139 Betting

And here we go.

Last time out I was badly hit by the Kid Yamamoto loss on the accumalator end of things but the JDS knockout and the wins for Poirier, Peralta and Henderson more than made up for it. Again it was a close run thing for me but the strike rate remains around the north side of 80% so I hope those of you that are reading are making some money.

I've not much time to run through this so it's a much shorter blog than I would like to have gone with.

So lets get this thing started for UFC 139.

Here's the UFC's own extended preview for the event.

Here's the full fight card for UFC139. I'm only going to take 5 or 6 fights from the card as I believe there is a few too many fights that could go either way.

Main card

Light Heavyweight bout: Maurício Rua vs. Dan Henderson
Middleweight bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le
Bantamweight bout: Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles
Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story
Light Heavyweight bout: Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

Preliminary card (televised)

Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz
Middleweight bout: Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Bantamweight bout: Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto
Lightweight bout: Gleison Tibau vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs. Nick Pace
Welterweight bout: Matt Brown vs. Seth Baczynski
Lightweight bout: Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo

As ever we'll kick this off with the main event.

Light Heavyweight bout: Maurício Rua vs. Dan Henderson

4 and a half years seems such a short time but that's how long that has passed since these two would have been respectively the number 1 contender and champion of the Pride middleweight division (93kg). Unfortunately for Pride fans the company disbanded shortly after Henderson beat Wanderlei Silva and we would all have to wait until November 2011 for this match up to happen.

Both men are legends in the sport. Shogun being responsible for giving Lyoto Machida his first professional loss in their second fight. He did this with a vicious TKO following the highly disputed original fight which the majority of people scored in Shogun's favour only for the judges scorecards to disagree. Since then there has been some major questions relating Shogun's condition and specifically the condition of his knees which have seen Rua have several surgeries over the years to varying degrees of success if his performances are to be the indicators of their success. This again is a question mark area as was seen in the fight with Jones where Shogun looked particularly out of shape and gassed badly. Of course Jones pressing and pushing the pace didn't help the matter but it's an area of concern as other than the original Machida fight Shogun's conditioning has been questionable. What's not in question is the mans talent. He is one of the best strikers on the planet and has a vicious array of knees and kicks that can leave any opponent in a daze. Not too mention the speed Shogun can go about his work when he is fully fit. This camp has largely been done in private so stories relating to Shogun's conditioning and injuries have been scarce. Simply put a fully fit Shogun is a dangerous proposition for just about anyone at 205lbs. The problem is it's a long time since we've seen this. After his KO victory against Forrest Griffin in his most recent bout we can not be sure if the real Shogun is ready to show up.

And so we move on to his opponent Dan Henderson. Hendo probably has one of the most famous KO victories in history when he knocked out Michael Bisping at UFC100.

Shortly after that fight Hendo moved to Strikeforce to challenge Jake Shields for that organisations middleweight title. He came up short against Shields and soon after returned to the 205lbs division. Since moving back up to 205lbs Hendo has been impressive and has enjoyed something of a career resurrection including most recently a victory against the Last Emperor Fedor at heavyweight. That victory for Henderson was massive and made him a much sought after free agent as his contract was up for negeotiation. Strikeforce having been purchased by Zuffa now lead to an interesting situation. Did they try keep Hendo in Strikeforce or bring him back to the UFC? Following the twitter discussion was half the fun. It lead to the now infamous "fatso's gotta go talk to baldy" tweet that showed the bad blood of their previous contract negeotiations that lead to Hendo jumping ship had been forgotten.


Henderson finds himself coming off the back of 3 successive wins. One at heavyweight when he knocked out Fedor and two fights at lightheavyweight against Sobral and Cavalcante respectively. All 3 of these fights have ended with a Henderson KO or TKO. Just in case your wondering the last time Henderson lost a fight at 205 was against Rampage Jackson in 2007. Henderson is a grinder and an Olympic calibre wrestler. He's got massive KO power with his right hand and if he connects it will be goodnight for most opponents. Hendo also has a granite chin and has never lost by TKO or KO.

This fight makes one hell of a match up even if it is a few years later than most of us would have liked. The big questions in the fight are whether Shogun's conditioning is up to scratch and whether Shogun may try and use his under-rated ground game. Personally speaking I see the clinch being crucial in this fight. Who ever is in control of it is likely to be victorious.

For Shogun to win this he has to have a similar strategy to his fight with Machida that he gets in and out. Shogun's tendancy to drop his hands when landing leg kicks may put him in danger of getting clipped. Henderson's best bet short of catching Shogun with a right hook is grinding out the result by using his wrestling. Henderson has some excellent dirty boxing skills and much like Randy Couture can tire guys out by keeping them trapped in the clinch against the cage. He's some vicious ground and pound that Shogun will have to be careful of should he be taken down.

Recommendation: Henderson might just edge this. Although both fighters are known for their KO abilities that this is going to possibly be a decision. The longer the fight goes the more it suits Henderson.

 


Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story

I think this fight has one of the major plays of the evening. Both men are in the top ten of the welterweight division and a victory for either could push them back towards possible contention in the division. Both men are dangerous for different reasons. Story with his excellent chin and very solid wrestling. Kampmann for his excellent kickboxing game and very under-rated ground game.

Story comes into the fight a slight favourite which personally speaking I think is a bit of a weird move by the bookies. If you look at their respective opponents to date Kampmann has fought a much higher calibre of fighter and with that has been on the wrong side of a couple of thread thin split decisions against top tier competition (Sanchez, Shields and Condit being the victors in those fights).

This fight is going to be all about whether Kampmann can avoid the takedown and engage Story in the striking game without getting caught. If Story attempts to stand and brawl I believe he may be on the wrong end of a decision as Kampmann's kickboxing is on another level to Story's.

Recommendation: The Hitman to upset the bookies and make us all some money. Those who bet on Fight of the Night may want to have a look at this as a potential bet.

I usually try to breakdown other fights on the card but I'm a bit stretched for time. Here's who I'm picking for the other fights anyway if you're interested.

Other Fights:

Middleweight bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le
Recommendation: Cung Le
Bantamweight bout: Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles
Recommendation: Urijah Faber
Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs. Nick Pace
Recommendation: Torres
Middleweight bout: Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman
Recommendation: Chris Weidman
If it was on entrances alone Lawlor would never lose. He is one of my favourite fighters but Weidman is going to be a top 185'er so apologies to the legend that is Tom. If you're not familiar with Tom have a look at this...

Yeah any excuse to put those two clips into a blog is fine by me.

My bookie of choice currently is Bet365 via http://www.bet365.com/home
As of the time of writing the 6 fights in an accumalator is worth 16.84/1.

As ever folks thank you for reading and happy punting.

Goodbye from the fatman that is myself for now. This is my next haircut by the way.

UFC on Fox

And here we go.

Just a recap last time out I was only wrong on one fight. Taking BJ Penn in a pick'em fight with Nick Diaz. As I said at the time they were very evenly skilled so it was difficult to pick a winner. It ended up being a great fight so even with the wrong result for me on the betting side of things it was a hell of a fight for any MMA fan to enjoy.

I'm a little later doing this up than usual so i'm planning to do a quick batch for the UFC on Fox card and do a UFC 139 blog later in the week.

I'm going to only breakdown two fights in this one. The main event of JDS vs Cain that airs on Fox in the States and Setanta over here as well the co-main event of Ben "The Smooth one" Henderson vs Clay "The Carpenter" Guida which will be live on Facebook. 8 other prelim fights air on Facebook so make sure not to miss them.

• Heavyweight Championship bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos
• Lightweight bout: Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida

Alright let's kick this off properly with the main event for the Heavyweight championship of the world. 
Heavyweight Championship bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos



Not only is this a landmark night for the UFC with their network TV debut it also sees possibly the biggest Heavyweight fight of the year. There's a bit of symmetry with the Heavyweight title taking centre stage as the event will mark 18 years since the UFC it's self debuted on PPV with an open weight tournament. A lots changed in those 18 years but mixed martial arts has remained the focus of the organisation. Anyway enough of this babbling lets get to the fight.

2 of the best Heavyweights on the planet finally collide after what seems like an eternity waiting for it. Velasquez has been out of the game injured since his crushing of Brock Lesnar back in October of last year at UFC121. Junior has attempted to keep himself busy in the midst of a guaranteed title shot being offered if he wished to wait whilst Cain recovered from his shoulder surgery. Cigano decided to keep fighting to keep himself fresh and faced an extremely dangerous opponent in Shane Carwin. Their UFC records are identical in that they're both 7-0 in the organisation. Both have numerous TKO's to their name and are extremely dangerous on the feet.

If we're talking purely boxing terms then you would give the advantage to Cigano. He has the best hands in the division from a boxing perspective and is as quick as he is technical with them. His beautiful knock out of Werdum in his debut and his streak of four stoppages (3 TKO/KO's and 1 verbal submission) there after against Struve, Cro Cop, Yvel and Gonzaga put him on the map and in contention for a title shot. He earned that title shot after a decision win against the robust Roy Nelson. In that fight JDS' cardio was brought into question as he was visibly tired going into the 3rd round. He looked much better cardio wise in his most recent fight with Carwin but there is still question marks in this area for a 5 round fight.

One negative impact for JDS is that he is rather one dimensional in his approach that he primarily boxes. Rarely throws kicks but is vicious with knees in the clinch. His trademark left upper cut is the punch to watch out for. If he hits anyone clean with that it's lights out and fight over. His take down defence and balance has been impressive but this will be put to the test with Velasquez who comes with an excellent all round and wrestling game.

Since his last fight he has split with Ed Soares as his manager and returned to his roots camp wise. He still receives BJJ training under the Nogueira brothers but is primarily training back in Brazil. Whether this will have a positive or negative impact on JDS is yet to be seen.

Moving on to Velasquez. What can be said that you've probably not already heard. Cain Velasquez is a true mixed martial artist in every sense of the name. His technique is excellent and his cardio is amazing for a Heavyweight. The guy is known to out train Welterweights and Lightweights in cardio drills which is for the most part unheard of.

He has a perfect 9-0 record and came into the UFC off the back of not being able to get fights on the regional circuit such was the buzz that was surrounding him after his debut. When he appeared in the UFC he immediatedly justified the hype by dispatching his first 2 opponents within the first round. He continued this tear with a third TKO victory in the UFC in his next fight. As has been visited on this blog previously he did take a decision victory over Cheick Kongo in his 4th UFC fight. This was visibly a bigger challenge for Cain compared to his first 3 opponents and it was the first time we'd seen him in any kind of difficulty when he was rocked twice. The cardio shined through and he recovered quickly enough to maintain his composure and grind out the fight.

He then disposed of Rothwell and Big Nog in ruthless fashion to earn a title shot against Brock Lesnar. In that title fight he survived an early Lesnar onslaught and being taken down twice to then press the champion and force a stoppage when Lesnar could no longer defend himself. It was the performance of a lifetime and I myself was personally there to witness it so I can say first hand that it was electric in the arena that night.

In the Lesnar fight Cain suffered a torn rotator cuff that required surgery. Hence forcing him to rehabilitate it prior to fighting again. Now two questions remain regarding this fight.
1. Can JDS avoid the takedown and land his strikes?
2. Does Cain still have the same conditioning as before his injury as it's over a year since he fought?

These two questions are key in determining the winner of this fight. Velasquez is the definitely more well rounded of the two fighters and would take the edge in that respect however JDS is the more technical boxer and has the quicker hands but not as great cardio.

Recommendation: It's a pick'em fight again. I believe if this fight is over inside the first 2 rounds it will be via a JDS KO/TKO. If it goes any longer than that I think Velasquez will win the fight by a 4th round TKO or a decision. I'm probably going to be hedging my bets with this one for those reasons. 


Lightweight bout: Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida

If you're a Fight of the Night bet fan. I'd suggest this or Poirier vs Garza. Guida and Henderson is a pretty even match up in many areas. They've both excellent top games and wrestling. Their cardio is off the charts. Guida's entrance is generally more movement than some Heavyweights have in their fights. Henderson is much the same in the respect that he's a lightning bolt speed wise and can keep up a relentless pace.

Guida has made a name for himself through his relentless style. Previously a Strikeforce champion prior to being dethroned by Gilbert Melendez. Guida has come on in leaps and bounds since moving to Greg Jackson's camp. He comes into this fight on a four fight win streak including a victory over Anthony Pettis who defeated Henderson back at WEC53 to claim their Lightweight title. We're not doing MMA math here so it would be silly to discount Henderson on this basis. He is an exciting fighter and is willing to participate in a brawl should it be needed. Guida does have some wild stand up but it can be effective in that it's unorthodox so Guida is difficult to predict on his feet. This helps him with his wrestling game as it allows opportunities for the takedown.

Henderson is coming off the back of two wins since entering the UFC. His most recent victory over Jim Miller was extremely impressive as no-one had put Miller into those sort of precarious positions up to that point in his career. It was also noticeable how much compusure Henderson had as he himself was put in some difficult positions early on in the fight. Henderson is extremely well rounded and in my personal opinion I give him a massive advantage on the feet as well as on the ground should he be on top.

It's a close fight and is probably going to go by decision.
Recommendation: The Smooth One Ben Henderson. It'll either be by submission early on or a decision victory.

Other Facebook Prelims: 

Welterweight bout: Mike Pierce vs. Paul Bradley 
Recommendation: Pierce
Bantamweight bout: Norifumi Yamamoto vs. Darren Uyenoyama
Recommendation: Kid Yamamoto
Featherweight bout: Cub Swanson vs. Ricardo Lamas
Recommendation: Lamas
Featherweight bout: Dustin Poirier vs. Pablo Garza
Recommendation: This is a pick'em fight. Poirier is the better fighter in my opinion and should take it but Garza could pull off a shock victory. Price wise a small punt on Garza may be worthwhile if you want to hedge.

For what it's worth

To anyone that reads this I've a simple statement to make that I'm happy to admit to anyone. I'm a gambler. I have been since I turned around 19 and started to play poker. Much like anything in this world; gambling it's self can be a life long struggle with adversity in the pursuit of perfection. It's something that you're capable of doing from the moment you can think for yourself until the day that you die if your faculties are intact. You might ask why I'm writing this and I'll answer that. Simple I'm bored number one and number two; there is so much stigma related to the subject that I just want to get my feelings on the subject out in the open and leave something that's been annoying the fuck out of me for a long time.

Now before anyone starts wondering what difference it makes to me as a person. I'll tell you. It means nothing for the most part. It means that sometimes I'm going to look at some things from a different perspective. There's a stereotypical view of a gambler as a leech trying to put any money they have or don't have in some cases on a bet trying to get that big score. From a personal perspective that's not me. It never has been and never will be. I don't believe in that sort of thing. It's a shitty stereotype related to arseholes that give gamblers a bad name. Some gamblers I've got to know are some of the most honourable people I've had the pleasure to know. If you're looking at the highest end of the spectrum; some players will loan out 6 figure sums on an IOU or stake someone on the basis of a percentage of their winnings. Most of the interesting people I've got to know through this hobby have a sort of unwritten code of ethics. It's weird that in an age where people can be so anally retentive about deals and contracts; that gamblers can verbally agree things and meet terms without the bull shit that ties down some of the rest of the world.

You see there's a huge difference between being retarded when it comes to gambling and smart enough that you do not fuck yourself over. It's the same difference between someone that can drink a pint and someone that will just get paralytically shit faced every time they're within sniffing distance of a jagerbomb. Yes there is drawbacks and yes you have to learn lessons the hard way; by your pocket being hit in a time when money is king. But and it's as huge a but as J-Lo's arse. With those lessons there is an education if you're smart enough to pay attention that you can take advantage of some golden opportunities.

I appreciate that everyone has that mate that's pretty much fucked themselves up; betting on anything irrespective of them knowing the thing they're betting on. These are the gambling equivalent of someone that was gonna be a fuck up either way. If it wasn't gambling that got them it would have been the booze or pot or fucking Winning Streak scratchcards. They were someone bound to be fucked or fucked over. They're the people sending their bank account details to the Nigerian bank scam mails. In other words they don't look at the reality of the game and think they can beat anything.

Now I'm not going to say I came by this realisation overnight. It took me a few years to come to the conclusions I have now. Being honest at one point I was down about €2500 over a 2 year period. Trust me on the sunscreen on this. One of the best things I've ever did was compile my betting history to understand where I was burning money up and where I was most profitable. You have to understand that like the massive odds of the Lotto; usually the odds are stacked against you in favour of the bookie and you have to try limit those possible odds. Seen as though it's a common thing for people to have their yearly bet on the Grand National. Have a look at the history of the favourite winning that race and you'll soon see what I mean. That's a 40 horse race each year so your odds all things being equal are 39 to 1. That's 1 horse for you and 39 for the bookie to win. Ok horses aren't equal but traditionally the favourite for the race is usually around 7-1. It's this sort of shit that few people will take into account.

It's a sucker bet and much like someone on Deal or No Deal that keeps their box all the way through it just really isn't playing to the numbers. Just in case you're wondering what I mean with the Deal or No Deal Scenario. Say you have 25 boxes in the game. If you pick 1 box at this point you've got a 4% chance in having the jackpot box. Now if you get to the end and you've the 1c box and the €250,000 box available and you decide to go to the end. The banker tells Noel to offer you the swap. What do you do?
a) Keep your box sure the odds are 50/50.
b) Swap the box.

The answer is b. You should actually swap the box every time. You see it's simple maths. Although you have 2 boxes available. The odds are stacked heavily that the other box will have the €250,000. When you start each box has a 4% chance of being the jackpot. The box on your table's odds never changes. The boxes in play however do. For each box you've taken away throughout the game your adding 4% more likelihood to that other box being the jackpot. Your odds are actually 96 to 4 at that point. So would you still stay with the box? Of course not. 24 times the swap is the right move and only once keeping it is. It's a maths thing. It's known as variable change. Feel free to check it out. Anyone that's watched the excellent movie 21 may be aware of the concept.

At points in my teens I was going on the hop to play snooker or pool for money. Hell at one point I was gambling with my overtime money playing pool in Stillorgan or Bray. Yes that was a profitable endeavour and one of the things I did to get myself out of the aforementioned hole. It did take me a year solid to get ahead but it's something I've paid attention to as much as I can. The key to keeping this shit in the long run is knowing where to get your money in and when to stay the hell away from items. My favourite markets at the moment are MMA as you can see from my recent history of blogs. Bookies are still trying to catch up on this sport so a bit of knowledge can go a long way. Some things are just borderline impossible to predict on a regular basis. Horse racing being one. It's a fucking nightmare and is more a bet for fun thing in my opinion. It's also the sport where you'll hear the all too familiar mantra of "it can't lose". 

If you do like a gamble or two and your finding yourself on the losing end of things. I'd suggest reading a few things. Firstly the great book "Amarillo Slim in a world full of fat people" by Thomas Austin Preston or Amarillo Slim as he's better known. Slim is a gambling success story much in the same way that Magnier and McManus are through the bloodstock business which is heavily reliant on racing in general to make money. Slim has had a lifetime of gambling and came out all the richer. Much in the same vein as Doyle Brunson. Slim invested and kept a nest egg to retire to. If you read his life story you'll get a better insight the difference between a real gambler and someone that puts on a bet. Some of my favourite quotes of his that put things into better perspective are:

“I don’t believe in hunches. Hunches are for dogs making love.” Amarillo Slim

“Nobody is always a winner and anybody who says he is, is either a liar or doesn’t play poker.” Amarillo Slim

Slim was one of the great proposition gamblers of his time and there's a heap of different famous bets. My favourite story about Slim is his famous ping pong bets. He always said he'd play anyone as long as he chose the paddles. This lead to him beating a world ping pong champion with them using coke bottles as paddles.
One of Slim's mottos was: "I never go looking for a sucker. I look for a Champion and make a sucker of of him."
To this respect Slim was one of the greatest gamblers in history. He would put a proposition to you that it looked like he could not win. He followed in the footsteps of Titanic Thompson who is the subject of an excellent biography by Kevin Cook. I'd seriously suggest reading both books. You will enjoy them and it will make you a better gambler for it.

I went a bit off track there but here's the simplest way to give yourself a chance of some success in the long run. Use different sites. Prices vary wildly from site to site so always go looking for value. You wouldn't spend €50 quid extra on a coat you know you can get cheaper in another store. There's really no excuse to do this in gambling either. Get the best value for your money. You owe it to yourself. Sites like www.oddschecker.com will give you a great insight into prices available across the major sites. Loyalty is not valued for the most part my sports book sites so be loyal to yourself.

The other thing I highly recommend is to offer odds and lay bets through sites like Betfair. If you know a sport lay odds. There's a huge market out there and there's easy money to be made. Remember in the long run it's the bookies that don't lose. This is why Betfair and similar sites can be advantageous as you're the bookie and only limited by the amount in your bankroll. People do not pay attention to this sort of shit enough. It's a simple proposition.

As much as I love them accumalators are your worst enemy. Try stick to doubles or trebles as you are more likely to get a return. If you're stretching to 4 selections look at doing a lucky 15 or something similar. This way there's a return of some sort if only some of your selections come through. When betting on the donks and you're getting over evens for a place. Put the each way bet down. This gives an opportunity for you to earn your original stake back plus a little profit.

Profit. That's the key word. You play to win. You gamble to win. Anyone that gambles for gambling's sake is a fucking moron. You might as well just flip a coin. It's quicker and you've better odds usually. They're one of those people that's probably decided to piss into the wind at some point too. Keep to what you know. Do not bet on shit you've not a clue on. If you're taking betting advice from anyone including me. Try see what they're like history wise. Too many people bet on the basis of thinking someone knows better. A lot of people are full of shit when it comes to betting as well. Look at investment bankers. They're gamblers of the worst accord. Gambling with other fuckers money whilst taking their fees regardless of the outcome. Yes some of them have did amazingly well for themselves but to all intents and purposes it's the investment banking sector that's caused the global recession. Some of them advising people to invest on shit they were betting against. The legendary stories of credit default swaps being the prime example. I base this on a lot of economist's views and through a few documentaries including the excellent Inside Job.

If you take anything from my rambling please take this advice. Never gamble money you don't have. If you can't afford to do it. Don't. I've got to the stage where I'd rather risk a gamble than have a drink as I may get a return on my bet as opposed to a filthy hangover. Worst case scenario you get no return.. Much like when you have a drink so I there's my twisted logic.

Don't chase lost money. If you're on a losing streak don't increase your bets or get desperate to cover the losses. This is the mistake most people make. They get emotional and panic. It's that panic that leads to mistakes and unnecessary risks. This leads back to the only play with what you can afford to lose.

The other side of things is trust the maths and keep a record. Luck is a four letter word. It's subjective. It's not a fact. Maths can not be denied. With some games the odds will always remain the same. Playing Texas holdem you've a set of odds that do not change. Don't get stupid because you've lost with a particular hand on repeated occasions. This is the mistake some people make and it's fatal. You have to be willing to play the numbers and take emotion and memory out of it in that respect. Keeping a record of what you've done is the best way to know where you stand. Record everything of relevance. Your stakes etc. and before too long you'll see the patterns that you can adjust.

There's opportunites out there. Of this I've no doubt. There's definitely ways to make money if you do things right. Learn when to hedge your bets so your not so reliant on one outcome.

I hope this makes some sense. I'll probably have a UFC blog for UFC on Fox and UFC 139 up by Friday.

Here endeth the lesson.